Publication
Peter Turchin
Most preindustrial states experienced recurrent waves of political collapse and internal warfare. One possible explanation of this pattern, the demographic-structural theory, suggests that population growth leads to state instability and breakdown, which in turn causes population decline. Mathematical models incorporating this mechanism predict sustained oscillations in demographic and political dynamics. Here I test these theoretical predictions with time-series data on population dynamics and sociopolitical instability in early modern England, the Han and Tang China, and the Roman Empire. Results suggest that population and instability are dynamically interrelated as predicted by the theory.
Journal
Structure and Dynamics: eJournal of Anthropological and Related Sciences
Publication Details
Vol. 1 · No. 1
Peter Turchin. (2005). Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States. Structure and Dynamics: eJournal of Anthropological and Related Sciences, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.5070/sd911003259
Connections
My article https://doi.org/10.5070/SD911003259 A comment by Andrey Korotayev https://doi.org/10.5070/SD911003266 A critique by Natalia Komarova https://doi.org/10.5070/SD911003268 and my response https://doi.org/10.5070/SD911003269